Walai.id, Jakarta – Indonesia saat ini menghadapi tantangan serius dalam sektor manufaktur akibat penurunan daya beli baik di tingkat domestik maupun global.
Faktor-faktor seperti perlambatan ekonomi di Cina dan Uni Eropa, kenaikan suku bunga oleh The Fed, kondisi kemarau yang berkepanjangan, ketidakpastian perang Rusia-Ukraina, dan dimulainya perang Israel-Palestina telah menyebabkan penurunan daya beli terhadap produk manufaktur Indonesia.
Penurunan signifikan dalam Indeks Keyakinan Konsumen (IKK), terutama di kalangan mereka yang memiliki penghasilan di bawah Rp3 juta, adalah salah satu indikasi kuat penurunan daya beli masyarakat.
“Indeks Kepercayaan Industri (IKI) Oktober 2023 mencapai 50,70, tetap ekspansi meskipun melambat 1,81 poin dibandingkan September 2023,” kata Juru Bicara Kementerian Perindustrian (Kemenperin), Febri Hendri Antoni Arif, menyampaikan saat rilis IKI Oktober 2023 di Jakarta, Selasa (31/10).
Dalam rilis IKI Oktober 2023 yang diumumkan pada hari ini, kami mencatat penurunan nilai IKI sebagai hasil dari tiga faktor utama.
Pertama, penurunan daya beli di pasar global, yang disebabkan oleh perlambatan pertumbuhan ekonomi di negara mitra dagang utama Indonesia, terutama Tiongkok dan Eropa, telah mengurangi permintaan terhadap produk manufaktur Indonesia.
Di pasar domestik, penurunan daya beli masyarakat dipicu oleh dua faktor penting. Kenaikan harga energi, terutama harga bahan bakar minyak (BBM), serta kenaikan suku bunga, telah meningkatkan biaya pendanaan di sektor manufaktur, yang pada gilirannya menyebabkan kenaikan harga barang-barang manufaktur.
Kenaikan suku bunga acuan juga membuat masyarakat lebih berhati-hati dalam pengambilan pinjaman, yang pada akhirnya mengurangi pengeluaran mereka untuk berbagai keperluan.
Kedua, pelemahan nilai tukar mata uang Rupiah telah meningkatkan biaya bahan baku yang diimpor, yang pada akhirnya mempengaruhi biaya produksi. Ini terutama memengaruhi produk-produk yang menggunakan bahan baku impor.
Meskipun pelemahan Rupiah memberikan peluang bagi produsen yang menggunakan bahan baku lokal untuk bersaing.
Faktor ketiga adalah faktor eksternal yang termasuk banjirnya produk impor, peredaran barang ilegal, dan kenaikan harga energi pada Oktober. Upaya untuk menangani masalah ini oleh aparat penegak hukum dan kementerian terkait belum sepenuhnya berhasil, dan produk impor terus membanjiri pasar domestik, merusak produsen domestik.
Akibat dari situasi ini adalah penurunan IKI yang mencakup 16 subsektor, dengan Industri Mesin dan Perlengkapan, Industri Pengolahan Tembakau, dan Industri Komputer, Barang Elektronik, dan Optik sebagai subsektor yang mengalami penurunan IKI tertinggi.
Variabel pembentuk IKI menunjukkan bahwa Pesanan Baru dan Produksi masih mengalami ekspansi, meskipun mengalami perlambatan dibandingkan dengan bulan sebelumnya. Sementara itu, Persediaan Produk mengalami kontraksi, yang menunjukkan bahwa masih banyak produk yang tersimpan di gudang produsen, dan produksi ditahan.
Meskipun beberapa subsektor mengalami penurunan daya beli dan ekspansi yang lebih rendah, sebagian besar pelaku usaha tetap optimis terhadap kondisi enam bulan ke depan.
Perlu diperhatikan bahwa karakteristik Industri Mesin dan Perlengkapan sebagai industri barang modal membuatnya sangat rentan terhadap fluktuasi permintaan.
Penurunan daya beli di sektor industri pengguna dan penurunan harga komoditas tambang seperti batu bara dan nikel berdampak signifikan pada subsektor ini.
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